IPCC defines climate change as “A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e. g. , by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer” (Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2011). IPCC further defines climate variability as “variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc. ) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events” (Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2011).
The change in climate and climate variation are both due to natural processes or persistent human activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and land use. The observed effects of climate variability and change affect the environment and society in all aspects. |Table 1: HIV/AIDS Adults Prevalence Rates (%) | |Country |1999 |2001 |2003 |2007 |2009 | |Zambia |19. 95 |21. 5 |16. 5 |15. 2 |13. 5 | |Source: Index Mundi | The United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimated 34. 2 million people around the world were infected with the disease in 2011, and 1.
7 million deaths occurred in 2010 (UNAIDS 2009). Sub-Saharan Africa is the epicentre of the AIDS epidemic with over 70% of the infections worldwide, yet only constitutes 15% of the world’s population (Crewe, 2009). Zambia is on record to have lost over 1,300 teachers from HIV/AIDS within the first 10 months of 1998 (UNAIDS, UNEP, 2007). UNAIDS futher estimated in 2009 that 85. 7% of total number of children were living with HIV, 90% of new infections were in children and 82. 1 % of AIDS related deaths were also in Children in Zambia (UNAIDS, 2009).
There is a reduction (as potrayed in table 1 above) in prevallence over the years even though many lives have been lost and continue to be lost due to HIV /AIDS. While HIV still has no cure or vaccine, certain drugs can help manage the disease so that infected people can live more productive lives, and can help reduce transmission. Potential relations between climate change and HIV/AIDS may, at a glance, not seem reasonable, especially when it is a well known fact that HIV/AIDS transmission from person to person is independent of climate.
However these linkages exist in a more complex, multi-factorial, bio-directional and may involve both direct and indirect pathways as illustrated in figure 1, below. Figure 1: Climate Change HIV/AIDS Interaction [pic] Source: IUCN, ESARO (2010) The last 100 years have seen the world warm up by approximately 0. 75oC. However, over the last 25 years, the globe has been warming at the rate of over 0. 18oC per decade (Hadley Research Centre 2008). Heat trapped results in change of climate and can cause severe weather anomalies.
The change in climate can be measured by changes in a variety of climatic indicators such as temperature, precipitation and wind, including extreme changes in average and extreme conditions. It is important to note that the world’s climate has been changing throughout history long before human activity played a role; this was mainly through orbital changes, sun’s intensity and volcanic activities on centaury time scales. However human activity has since the mid-20th century has significantly contributed to change in climate through the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes.
These activities have resulted in generation of gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that reduce heat loss from earth to outer space making the earth warmer. WHO estimated over 140,000 excess deaths annually by the year 2004 since 1970s (WHO, 2012) as a result of global warming and Africa is amongst the most vulnerable regions of the world (MTENR, 2007). The effects of climate change and variability negatively affect the social environmental determinants of health. Some of the effects include heavy rains, floods and severe storms causing major disruptions to society.
There are certainly advantages and disadvantages to climate change, but impacts are expected to become more serious as global surface temperatures become increasingly warmer (Canada’s Action on Climate Change, 2012). Studies done in southern Africa highlight the risk of declining conditions for the farming sector, such as frequent occurrence of extreme weather events (New et al. , 2006), delayed start of the rainy season and found major increases in mean rainfall causing soil erosion.
Reduced rains at the end of the season, has been responsible for crop failures especially for maize the staple food of the region, whose yields are expected to decline by nearly 30 percent by the year 2030. Climate change is expected to affect southern Africa across sectors including health (HIR 2009), agriculture and food and water management (HIR 2009). Environmental changes result in habitat loss, flooding, drought and food shortage, bringing about social economic changes including conflict, overcrowding in cities with poor sanitation, population growth and increased morbidity.
The direct link may be through vector borne diseases such as Malaria, which increase due to change in temperature, rainfall and humidity (IPCC 1998); while indirectly as a result of environmental degradation or extreme weather events promote development and spread of infectious diseases through migrations, food shortages forcing people to indulge in activities/behaviours for survival that they would not otherwise have engaged in (DID 2006). Climate change creates displacements due to severe weather events or natural disasters (IPCC 1998).
HIV/AIDS spread is likely to be accelerated in such situations. The ability to cope with climate variability and change has been observed to be the mobility factor. Mobility is affected by social and individual capital and is a reflection of economic, psychosocial and physical resilience to adverse events. It a major downstream driver towards the negative effects of HIV infection causing increased reliance on natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation.
When communities or individuals fail to cope, they become more vulnerable to HIV/AIDS infection which in turn leads to increased dependence on natural resources. The increased dependence on natural resources in turn makes communities even less able to survive, as they become more and more exposed to the effects of weather and availability of resources. Being infected with HIV/AIDS drastically decreases ones coping ability, leading to both behaviour that increases HIV transmission and also increased natural resource use (IUCN 2010).
Weiser et al (2007) related food shortage with multiple high-risk sexual behaviours among women in Botswana and Swaziland. Women bear the greatest burden of climate change, partly because they make up the majority of the agricultural workforce hard hit in an environmental crisis. They often do not have sufficient control of their lives and access to as many opportunities to generate income as men they are more likely to be poor and being infected with HIV virus (Weiser et al 2007).
There are a number of direct linkages between the HIV/AIDS epidemic and climate change in southern Africa. HIV/AIDS and climate change have been perceived as profoundly linked, a perception shared by a range of UN bodies, including UNAIDS and the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP. Despite progress in slowing the global HIV epidemic, climate disruptions threaten to undermine the gains in fighting HIV/AIDS as observed.
Household vulnerability reflects risk of exposure, risk of inadequate capacity to cope and risk of severe consequences, all of which are made worse by HIV/AIDS. The coping strategies usually engaged by the rural poor, especially HIV/AIDS affected communities, are of particular concern in a context of heightened exposure to either physical or social stresses, the primary consequence of HIV/AIDS in affected communities are the erosion of resilience and inability to cope with these stressors. Climate change, unsurprisingly, will do something similar.
Going hungry is dangerous, as poor nutrition speeds progression from HIV to AIDS and can render antiretroviral therapy less effective. It is harder to adhere to medications without adequate food resulting in increased vulnerability to high-risk sexual behaviour as migration creates opportunities for sexual networking. Communities and individuals, especially women may resort to transactional sex to alleviate hunger usually with inconsistent condom use, increase in intergenerational sexual relationships and lack control in sexual relationships is a common feature.
It is established that a major conduit of the double threat is climate change related alteration in the distribution of infectious diseases, including malaria, which interact with HIV/AIDS. Therefore, while one does not cause the other, HIV/AIDS and climate change interact together in a vicious cycle to perpetuate and increase vulnerability not only of the affected communities but of the affected natural resources and ecosystems as well.
Works Cited 1.Canada’s Action on Climate Change. (2012, 08 23). 10 Things You Should Know About Climate Change. (Canada’s Action on Climate Change) Retrieved 06 02, 2013, from http://www. climatechange. gc. ca/default. asp? lang=En&n=20A201A3-1 2. Crewe, M. (2009). UN Chronicle. Retrieved May 27/05/2013, 2013, from United Nations:http://www. un. org/wcm/content/site/chronicle/home/archive/issues2009/toprotectsucceedinggenerations/pid/21560 3. Curriero FC, H. K. (2002).