The second unexpected surprise that China will face is the gender imbalance. In China the inference drawn is that most of the programs of gender imbalance is due to the sex-selective absorption and this would certainly end in the marriage market generation, which is a repercussion of this imbalance an extreme situation in the sub replacement fertility situation. Another unexpected surprise by Everstadt is the mortality. A presumption that along with increased economic development, globalization a spread of ideas, knowledge and technology would take a horizon and would gradually decrease the rate of mortality.
People who are in USA have a life span of around 80’s. If you take an example of Siberia each younger generation have a better survival chances than the mortality program generated before. This means it is very important and difficult at the same time to improve the health of the society as a whole. Siberia’s a life expectancy for women is anticipated to have fallen behind that of the third world, with that one can imagine it’s female life expectancy might catch up with the third world level within 25 years.
The fourth and the final surprise he mentions is Demographics Exceptionalism which is an American phenomenon that states that the population range depends on the human behavior and the values associated with them. The demographic exceptionalism states that the population, life style and the life expectancy are all directly proportional to the human decisions and values that may turn out to be either a standard globalist template or something different.
USA may be the best example of such surprise as there the transitional and transactional demographic churns are available at every door step. Not all but few of the surprises would be included in the USA economy. 2. Consider the USA. Do the views presented by Eberstadt apply? Why or why not? Looking ahead to the year 2040 and the demographic trends you predict, envision how the health care system for your country will need to change. Considering USA and all other well developed nations a trend of varying birth rate, gender imbalance, rate of mortality is seen.
Almost all the developed nations are thinking about strategies of how to cope with these factors as they would have a long term impact on the country. The views of Eberstadt are in fact applicable in the US country as it too is facing all the four unexpected surprises the professor has mentioned in his work. According to a study a zero population growth is predicted and foreseen in the year 2040 which means that the population growth would not only stop but would eventually decline for an undetermined time period.
Looking at these tough situations in the future the health care has to be improved in such a way that it could cope with these demographic conditions. For this certain changes have to be made to better equip the country in the times of facing zero or negative growth. For this purpose it has to be noted that according to UN model the life expectancy is predicted to rise till year 2050 in the developed countries along with the rise in the median age of the citizens. According to the calculations and forecasting till 2050 the median age would have risen above 51 years.
So the medical system has to keep these factors and figures while developing their strategy which it’s going to need in these years. Vaccines, medicines, medical equipment and methods would all have to be revised in such a manner that such a critical and long lasting situation can be averted or at least delayed as much as possible.
Bibliography
AEI. (2003). Population, Public Health, and Globalization. Retrieved February 20, 2009 from <http://www. aei. org/publications/filter. all,pubID. 20050/pub_detail. asp>